Historical analysis can draw on records, archaeology, and surviving objects, while analysis of the present has contemporary accounts to compare. Planning twenty, fifty, or one hundred years ahead has no equivalent body of direct evidence. Technological development can change direction, so extrapolating today's cyber warfare methods does not establish how future wars will be fought. Governments and their priorities can also change quickly. Long-range plans therefore begin with broad capabilities and possible operational or strategic scenarios, becoming less specific as the horizon extends.
Chapter · 3:00-7:22
Long-range strategy begins with capabilities
Historical evidence provides a firmer basis than long-range forecasting, which must work with broad capabilities and possible scenarios.