Notable Point · 24:37-26:25

Possible French motives: territory, prestige, and army politics

Territorial gains in East Asia and prestige at home are considered as possible incentives for a French government to take the risk.

Notes

Expansion in East Asia supplies a possible motive for French intervention in the counterfactual. A share of Korea or additional territory in China is imagined as a source of economic advantage and national status. Domestic conflict between political leaders and the armed forces supplies another possible incentive to seek a successful campaign. The account of a promotion controversy involves Freemasons gathering information about officers' religious practice and practising Catholics being denied promotion. Its exposure is dated to October 1904, later than the intervention imagined at the war's opening. It illustrates tensions surrounding army leadership, while victory abroad could restore prestige to the government and armed forces. These are proposed incentives within the scenario, with no adopted French intervention plan established.