Free French Indochina removes Japan's easy staging area

Free French Indochina would have British allies, so invading it would mean declaring war on Britain. Japan could probably defeat the local force, but the fighting would take time and warn the Allies. Losing easy access to Indochinese bases would disrupt the logistics behind attacks on the Philippines, Malaya, and Indonesia. An early Italian exit and possible German losses in the Atlantic could also release a much larger Allied fleet for the Far East. Japan might concentrate on China while Europe remained distracted, although a broadly similar expansionist course is still considered probable. The precise campaign remains uncertain, with an attack on the Philippines expected first and no easy access to Indochinese bomber bases.