Q&A ยท 4:04

Frederick III and the assumptions behind an alternate world war

An alternate alliance placing Britain, Germany, Italy, the Ottoman Empire, and Japan together is tested against political and naval realities.

Question

Would Frederick III surviving have produced a world war with Britain and Germany allied against France, Russia, Spain, Austria-Hungary, and China?

Short answer

Probably not: Frederick was less warlike, the alliance structure is internally implausible, and the proposed French conquests lack the necessary troops and naval force.

Notes

A longer-lived Frederick III might prevent the proposed war altogether, since Frederick was less bellicose than Wilhelm II and was expected to change the German political system. Bismarck's attempts to undermine him by encouraging his son's ego are presented as helping create a successor Bismarck could not control. The proposed alliances also face a basic problem: Austria-Hungary would be expected to side with Germany. French conquests in British West Africa and Egypt would require troops and naval power that the scenario does not explain. Both the coalition and its operations therefore need a more convincing basis.