How a French stalemate in 1940 changes Axis and Japanese choices

How would Japan, Italy, and the Soviet Union react if France stopped Germany and created a stalemate in 1940?

Italy might remain neutral, the Soviet Union could frame its Polish occupation defensively, and Japan would face a stronger British Far Eastern posture.

If France stopped the German advance, Mussolini could invoke the defensive wording of Italy's alliance and avoid joining a costly war. The Soviet Union might still occupy eastern Poland while presenting the move to Britain and France as a defensive buffer against Germany. Japan would face a larger British naval presence in the Far East, although Britain would still need to guard against Italy entering the war. A fleet in the western Indian Ocean could move toward either theater while remaining difficult for Japan to reach in a preemptive strike. British bombers could also use French airfields if the front stabilized, while German attacks on Britain would have to approach from more distant bases. The resulting campaign could resemble a technologically updated First World War stalemate.