Drawing on his earlier forecasting work, Stewart says that every model is wrong even when its inputs are careful and its construction is sophisticated. A forecast supports judgment by exposing assumptions and possible relationships; it cannot deliver a perfect image of the future. Science fiction faces the same choice, because a writer must decide which technical obstacles serve the story and which can be stated away. Artificial gravity may therefore receive detailed rules when it shapes propulsion and combat, but remain an unexplained convenience in a story centered on a civilian freighter crew.
Notable Point · 58:24-1:00:20
Forecasts guide judgment without predicting the future
Models help writers and planners test assumptions, but uncertainty makes every forecast a decision aid rather than a crystal ball.