The scenario changes as little as possible: Force Z turns farther into the South China Sea while Japanese aircraft search nearer the Malayan coast. The bombers are already operating near the limits of their fuel and without fighter escort, so another fifty miles can prevent contact altogether. Amphibious shipping would normally be sought close to the coast, while the British ships were already withdrawing farther out to sea. Navigation, endurance, and chance shaped the historical strike, and the ships' destruction was not inevitable.
Chapter · 4:48-10:25
How Force Z plausibly misses the fatal air strike
A small navigation difference separates Force Z from the long-range Japanese bombers and creates the alternate timeline.