The encounter with Force Z illustrates how operational outcomes can depend on chance. The comparison with Bismarck's fatal hit on Hood separates an event's enormous consequences from the probability of the particular event occurring. Better preparation and repeated attempts improve the chances of success, yet they do not eliminate contingency. In this scenario, the ships and aircraft simply miss each other on their return journeys, leaving the other decisions of the opening campaign intact.
Notable Point · 5:17-6:31
Chance and preparation in the encounter with Force Z
Force Z and the Bismarck-Hood comparison illustrate the role of chance without dismissing preparation.