How likely is a surviving Force Z to draw Japanese air support away from Wake Island?
Short answerIt creates pressure, but Japan probably still sends carrier support to Wake because that operation is the Navy's immediate priority.
NotesThe surviving British force creates another demand on limited Japanese strength, especially once Indomitable arrives. Even so, Wake Island is a direct Japanese Navy objective, while Southeast Asia is more closely associated with the Army's campaign. Interservice priorities therefore make it harder for the southern theater to divert the carriers immediately. Sōryū and Hiryū would probably support the second Wake assault before attention shifted south.