The final verdict: San Francisco, Australia, or no strike

The actual raid damaged the Pacific Fleet more severely than Japan expected, undermining the hoped-for headlong advance. War Plan Orange also pointed toward a more deliberate American campaign than Japanese planners needed. If provoking an American charge was essential, San Francisco was the stronger target. The broader grand-strategic choice remained divided between attacking Australia and declaring war without striking. An accompanying information strategy would attack a British target while publicly offering concessions to the United States, placing the political burden of escalation on Washington.