Naval Historywith Dr. Alex

Q&A · 8:17:31-8:23:05

If the February 26 coup became a Japanese civil war

Internal fighting could interrupt Japan's expansion in China, while the emperor's choice is treated as decisive for the rival factions.

Boshin WarFebruary 26 IncidentHirohitoImperial Japanese ArmyJapanese PoliticsKodohaSecond Sino Japanese War
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Question

What would happen to Japan if the Kodoha coup developed into a full civil war?

Short answer

Internal conflict could occupy Japan and interrupt expansion in China. The radicals are expected to lose, with the emperor's intervention treated as decisive.

Notes

The question is understood as a counterfactual development of the February 26 incident. Internal fighting is expected to absorb Japan's attention and could prevent the wider war in China from developing as it did. The initial response doubts that the militant faction would win. Leslie compares the possible fighting with the Boshin War, imagining smaller actions leading towards a decisive battle. He also makes the emperor's conduct central: continued neutrality could prolong the fighting, whereas his support would strongly favour whichever side received it. The panel acknowledges the difficulty of specifying a coup strong enough to cause civil war without already being strong enough to take power.