How did the Russian military buildup around Ukraine look on 20 February 2022?
Short answerContinued reinforcement favoured Russia numerically, but the visible buildup also made withdrawal politically costly and pushed any attack toward a much larger operation.
NotesThis contemporaneous assessment expected Russia to continue increasing pressure and deploying more troops around Ukraine. Time appeared to improve Russia's numerical balance because Ukrainian forces were not expanding at the same rate, while the buildup also provided more information about Ukrainian preparations. Public escalation created a political cost for withdrawing without a visible result. Any attack was therefore expected to become a large, deliberate operation rather than the quick seizure that might have been possible before the prolonged buildup.