Q&A · 52:32-54:21

A 20 February 2022 reading of Russia's military buildup

Recorded four days before the full-scale invasion, this contemporaneous assessment weighs force buildup, political pressure, and the shrinking room for a limited operation.

Question

How did the Russian military buildup around Ukraine look on 20 February 2022?

Short answer

Continued reinforcement favoured Russia numerically, but the visible buildup also made withdrawal politically costly and pushed any attack toward a much larger operation.

Notes

This contemporaneous assessment expected Russia to continue increasing pressure and deploying more troops around Ukraine. Time appeared to improve Russia's numerical balance because Ukrainian forces were not expanding at the same rate, while the buildup also provided more information about Ukrainian preparations. Public escalation created a political cost for withdrawing without a visible result. Any attack was therefore expected to become a large, deliberate operation rather than the quick seizure that might have been possible before the prolonged buildup.