Expected Falklands losses and the missing early-warning aircraft

First Sea Lord Henry Leach estimated that the Falklands force might lose four or five ships, drawing on his experience and analysis of the Second World War. That forecast contrasted with vendors' claims that modern radar and surface-to-air missiles would prevent losses altogether. Other observers, including voices in the United States Navy, focused on the absence of airborne early-warning aircraft from the Sea Harrier carriers. The actual campaign came close to Leach's estimate and illustrates why historical loss experience was a sounder planning guide than promises of perfect technical performance.