Predictions made in 1981 are used to show that informed observers can still dismiss a war that begins the next year. The present garrison, air power, and maritime presence make a successful assault on the Falklands demanding and therefore unlikely. If that success is interpreted as proof that forces are no longer needed, the cost of aggression falls and the probability can rise again. Deterrence is thus presented as an outcome produced by visible capability, not a permanent condition that survives its removal.
Notable Point · 1:44:25-1:46:17
Why saying the Falklands War cannot recur can weaken deterrence
The discussion argues that the low probability of another invasion depends on maintaining the forces that make an attack unattractive.