Every Japanese victory adds pressure because the United States helped design the ABDA framework even if it is not yet fighting inside it. That framework was intended to offset Japan's advantage without requiring a large additional commitment of resources to the region. The Japanese invasions can be placed in February 1942, but American entry has no precise date. Roosevelt's choices and the next German-American incident determine the timing. The scenario also requires Germany and the United States to remain formally at peace when Japan attacks British and Dutch possessions. If America is already fighting beside those allies, a Japanese attack on them is likely to be treated as an attack on the whole coalition, removing the logic for sparing Pearl Harbor. The projection therefore stops with American entry roughly three or four months after the southern offensives.
Notable Point · 31:44-34:51
Why the timeline stops at American entry
Japanese victories increase pressure on Washington, but Roosevelt's decisions and an unpredictable German-American incident prevent a precise entry date.