The political setup must remove both William McKinley and Theodore Roosevelt, whose knowledge and caution make the proposed war unlikely. Only a hard-line Southern Democrat plausibly supplies the required hemispheric expansionism in 1900. Democrats of the period were generally less committed to naval expenditure, creating a contradiction between the policy that provokes war and the fleet needed to fight it. The scenario therefore requires a different political coalition as well as different naval orders.
Notable Point · 40:42-43:30
The electoral and naval-spending trap
Replacing Roosevelt with a harder-line expansionist also risks replacing the political coalition most willing to fund the fleet needed for confrontation.