The answer to a question about a possible Canadian recession avoids a confident prediction. Economics produces many forecasts, while failed forecasters often move on to the next claim without being held to account. A later projection that Poland might overtake Britain by 2040 serves as an example of false precision. Eighteen weeks can transform economic assumptions, so extending one current growth rate for eighteen years should be read as a scenario rather than a fact.
Notable Point · 1:38:53-1:39:21
Why long-range economic forecasts need caution
Predictions proliferate more easily than accountability, and projecting a current growth rate eighteen years forward conceals how quickly economic conditions change.