The 1956 discussion imagined a ballistic-missile submarine of roughly 10,000 tons carrying missiles perhaps 70 or 80 feet long. Officials considered saddleback carriage, underwater launch, water pressure supporting the missile, and the sea quenching the firing flame. These proposals capture genuine uncertainty about the size, heat, range, and basing of future weapons before a stable solution emerged. At the same time, conventional submarines were reaching the peak of technology derived from the Second World War. Forecasts are often wrong, so ships and programmes need enough capacity to absorb the mistakes that accompany technological change.
Notable Point · 45:55-47:54
Early sea-based missile concepts under uncertainty
Speculation about enormous missiles and saddleback submarines illustrates why naval programmes need room to absorb mistaken forecasts.