The closing counterfactual imagines the Dutch giving the shogunate much fuller information about the outside world before the 1850s. In this scenario, the Tokugawa government uses Dutch technology and equipment to establish arsenals and form national army and navy forces early. A Japanese squadron closer in capability to Commodore Perry's would change the coercive balance behind the unequal treaties. Japan might preserve more isolation, negotiate on stronger terms, or prompt the United States to send a larger force. The question remains open, but institutions and credible military capability determine Japan's diplomatic freedom in each possible outcome.
Notable Point · 53:46-55:55
Could Dutch information have changed Perry's leverage?
A closing counterfactual asks whether earlier Dutch knowledge and a centralized Japanese fleet could have changed the unequal-treaty confrontation.