Notable Point · 1:23:22-1:27:20

Why dual-capable missiles complicate deterrence

A missile that might carry either a conventional or nuclear warhead forces an opponent to decide before impact which threat it is seeing.

Notes

A proposed Anglo-French nuclear cruise missile would provide a forward-deployable deterrent without fixed silos and complicate Russian targeting. Making it dual-capable prompts an objection: an opponent seeing incoming missiles might assume nuclear warheads and launch strategic weapons before impact. Similar ambiguity arises when anti-ship ballistic missiles resemble strategic systems and launch from similar areas. Clear differences between nuclear and conventional systems, including recognizable launch packs and explicit signaling, are proposed to reduce false alarms. Expanding the British SSBN force by two boats and maintaining two patrols is preferred as a cheaper alternative to establishing another delivery system. Pier launch is also raised as a possibility for Vanguard and Trident, but its availability is explicitly described as unconfirmed.