Capital-ship programmes were being set amid incomplete knowledge of future threats. Navies ordering and building ships in 1913 did not know how little time remained before war. German planners in particular did not see what was over the horizon. Each power assumed it still had time and believed its fleet looked strong enough to deter rivals. The closing question is whether that appearance was convincing enough to keep a crisis from becoming a war.
Chapter · 18:37-19:25
Capital ships and the uncertainty of deterrence
Navies ordering capital ships in 1913 assumed they still had time and were winning the deterrence contest, without knowing how close the next war was.