A Dogger Bank earthquake could postpone the First World War

What if an 8.3-magnitude earthquake struck Dogger Bank in 1914?

The fleets at Scapa Flow and their principal German bases might escape the worst direct damage, but widespread coastal destruction, flooding, fires, and disrupted sea traffic could absorb European governments long enough to postpone war.

The panel disagrees over how far shaking, structural collapse, fires, and wave effects would spread after the hypothetical earthquake. Scapa Flow and the main German fleet bases might escape the worst damage, and the Royal Navy would be widely dispersed if the event preceded the war. Clarke argues that damage to low-lying coastlines and drainage machinery in East Anglia and the Netherlands could leave governments occupied with recovery. Others question the size of any tsunami and emphasize vulnerable buildings or fires instead. Even relatively minor individual repairs could become a large burden when many communities needed them at once. Postponement of the war until at least 1915 is Clarke's conjecture, rather than an agreed geological forecast or a demonstrated political outcome.