Q&A ยท 2:55-3:06

What 300 rounds from a Russian 47 mm gun could achieve

A simple hit-rate estimate tests whether hundreds of small-calibre rounds could sink the trawler that Russian ships mistook for a threat.

Question

Would 300 rounds from the Russian 47 mm guns have sunk the trawler with a ten-percent hit rate?

Short answer

Probably: a ten-percent hit rate would mean about thirty three-pounder hits on the trawler.

Notes

At a ten-percent hit rate, 300 rounds from the Russian ships' 47 mm weapons would have produced roughly thirty hits on the trawler. The weapon was a three-pounder, and this simple calculation shows what competent shooting might have achieved. The historical gunfire failed to sink the vessel. Poor identification and ineffective gunnery compounded the Dogger Bank incident.