How might a British defeat of Russia's Second Pacific Squadron have affected Japanese doctrine and later war planning?
Short answerJapan would probably have studied the British performance, but a British victory would have shocked the world less than Japan's historical defeat of Russia and therefore carried a different symbolic lesson.
NotesA British victory would have looked less revolutionary to contemporary observers than Japan's real success against a European fleet. Japanese planners would still have studied how a smaller elite force could defeat an unprepared opponent. Britain might have claimed that only part of its fleet was necessary, even if it probably would have brought the full force to battle. The practical lesson about quality and concentration survives the counterfactual, while Japan's historical victory carried a greater symbolic shock because an Asian power had defeated a European fleet.