Q&A · 18:49-22:27

Disposable drones and escalation at sea

Rapid drone generations encourage disposability, while expensive uncrewed surface ships raise harder rules-of-engagement questions.

Question

What do you think of the reported grey-fleet disposal of drones and the French arrest of a ship's master?

Short answer

Rapid technical change makes early drones disposable, while expensive uncrewed ships pose harder escalation questions. The arrest is left unanswered for lack of detailed information.

Notes

Early drone generations are likely to be discarded quickly because the technology is still changing rapidly. Small reconnaissance systems can replace the dangerous work of sending a person into an unknown building, while larger designs may attempt to replace functions now performed by crewed aircraft. That range of roles makes 'drone' too broad a category for one policy response. States may tolerate the loss of an uncrewed aircraft, but the sinking of a surface vessel carrying expensive sensors and weapons could create a much more serious rules-of-engagement and escalation problem. Clarke leaves the French arrest unassessed because he has not read enough about it.