Deterrence works by creating room for confident restraint

Maintaining adequate forces is cheaper and safer than rebuilding after a balance has already collapsed. China's rise, American global commitments, and deep European reductions can create a dangerous perception of opportunity and weakness. Imbalance may make one side overconfident enough to push too far while leaving the other frightened enough to react without judgment. Leaders who feel secure can offer concessions without believing that compromise will expose them to greater danger. Deterrence is the material and psychological foundation that keeps negotiation credible, as well as a threat to punish aggression. The desired balance keeps pride and fear from driving a crisis toward war.