In this reading, Tirpitz treated a fleet two-thirds the size of Britain's as sufficient leverage even though Britain had already declared and funded a stronger standard. The German naval law appeared in 1898, nine years after the two-power commitment had been announced and demonstrated through construction. Deterrent signals may fail when leaders assume their state's rise is inevitable and discount how others will respond. The risk fleet is presented as a failure to read an adversary's visible interests despite years of British signaling.
Chapter · 16:14-19:00
Deterrence can fail against preconceived national ambition
Tirpitz's 1898 naval law ignored a British two-power commitment already demonstrated for nine years, illustrating the limits of material deterrence.