Decades of satellite and human observation could give China a detailed picture of Taiwanese defenses, but that detail can produce dangerous confidence. A breakdown may leave a commander with fewer tanks than planned, while borrowed mortars lead to a different deployment. An attacker that strikes the expected locations and advances on that assumption can meet weapons and units somewhere else. Improvised changes therefore illustrate the limits of prewar intelligence and the defensive value of uncertainty.
Notable Point · 1:00:51-1:02:07
Detailed intelligence can make an attacker overconfident
A precise prewar picture of Taiwan's defenses can become a liability when local breakdowns, borrowed weapons, and improvised redeployments make it stale.