These projections are historically informed estimates, with the reasoning depending on how a general war is delayed. One possibility removes conflict altogether. Another separates a European war from a Far Eastern or Pacific war by time. Those alternatives place different demands on navies, so there is no single inevitable fleet for the 1950s.
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A delayed world war has more than one naval outcome
Historically informed estimates depend on whether war disappears entirely or European and Pacific conflicts occur at different times.