Defense planning must start with national needs

The opening contrasts older procurement decisions based on national needs with modern debates organized around spending percentages, fashionable weapons, and comparisons with other states. Hypersonic missiles and drones illustrate how supposedly new threats often have long technological antecedents, including Second World War guided bombs and 1930s radio-controlled target aircraft. Armed forces may understand an emerging capability but receive only enough funding for experiments, leaving too little capacity when the danger becomes politically visible. The historical parallel is the optimism after 1919 and 1990 that distant conflict would remain somebody else's problem. Responsible strategy prepares for the world as it is, including low-probability wars, rather than assuming favorable political hopes will hold.