The shrinking defence estate reflected assumptions that peer conflict had ended and future wars would be optional. Spare facilities allow expansion and dispersal while preserving alternatives if existing infrastructure is destroyed. The same concern applies to national infrastructure such as power supplies. A 2016 plan proposed disposing of 91 expensive sites by 2040, even as forces were returning from Germany and needed facilities at home. Judging those decisions through efficiency and consolidation alone overlooks the security value of capacity that is available before an emergency begins.
Chapter · 28:40-39:51
A defence estate needs redundancy before crisis arrives
Decades of estate contraction removed bases, dispersal, and expansion capacity built for threats that post-Cold War planning assumed would not return.