Late-Cold-War defence by matrix borrowed the language of insurance: assess exposure, decide what risk is acceptable, and buy the systems that appear to fit. The framework looks attractive because it translates threats, money, and capabilities into a common calculation. Decisions for war combine the choices of individual leaders with crowd behaviour, while cultural ties and public opinion can draw states into conflicts that a model discounted. A matrix can organise judgement, but it cannot make irrational leaders, inherited obligations, or sudden political campaigns reliably quantifiable.
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Why a defence risk matrix cannot replace judgement
A quantitative model can match spending to an assessed risk, but it struggles with political, cultural, and emotional forces that shape whether states fight.