Darlan is the hinge for a whole-fleet evacuation

The French fleet only comes over in force if Darlan orders the naval ministry and fleet out together. The result would be a mass evacuation, with ships leaving French ports loaded with families, personnel, goods, and spare parts. Germany has little immediate capacity to intercept the movement because its U-boats, Luftwaffe, fuel stocks, and ground logistics are already stretched. The early U-boat force is small and still suffers torpedo defects, with its limited interference at Dunkirk offered as a comparison. The fleet's departure also changes the Free French political balance by carrying ministerial legitimacy into exile. Removing the French Navy from the war is arguably why Germany accepted a remaining French government in the armistice settlement. If the fleet leaves, Pétain's ability to preserve that arrangement becomes uncertain.