Why the open war after Crimea was the strategic mistake

With hindsight, should Russia have waited for the Mistral ships before moving on Crimea?

The Mistrals might have helped, but the larger mistake was escalating beyond Crimea and deniable pressure into open war.

Waiting for the Mistral amphibious ships could have provided useful capacity for the kind of operation envisaged around Crimea. That procurement counterfactual is separate from the later escalation beyond Crimea. The strategic criticism developed here is that deniable action had worked to Russia's advantage, while open warfare exposed it to further problems. This is an assessment of the escalation and its consequences, with the value of the ships treated as one operational consideration.