A crippled Italian fleet makes the fall of Crete less certain

Would the heavier Taranto strike and stronger Mediterranean Fleet prevent Crete from falling?

Possibly: reduced Italian sea support could improve the defense. Avoiding the historical British command change is a separate counterfactual that could help further.

Crete's fall becomes uncertain if a heavier Taranto raid leaves the Regia Marina unable to provide the same amphibious support. The forces reinforcing the airborne attack included troops, ammunition, and equipment brought by sea. A separate possibility concerns Churchill's decision to replace the Royal Marine officer who had organized the defense with an army commander lacking the same local knowledge. Avoiding that command change could further improve the defense, but it is an additional assumption. Continued British shipbuilding by itself does not decide either outcome.