British policy had to be credible to a Belgium expected to fortify itself and resist invasion. After 1871 French frontier defenses made a German move through Belgium increasingly attractive, while German nationalist writers claimed the Low Countries as part of the new empire's destiny. Repington expected Germany to ignore the 1839 treaty and seize Belgium, while doubt about British support risked pushing the country into a continental alliance or accommodation. A British military attaché reported that the War Office would send 100,000 troops if Germany invaded. The explanation was explicitly strategic: Germany now possessed a strong fleet that could use the Scheldt against Britain, so Belgian neutrality and independence served British self-interest.
Chapter · 40:20-42:43
Making the guarantee of Belgian neutrality credible
Belgium needed a believable British commitment because German pressure and a battle fleet capable of using the Scheldt made neutrality inseparable from British self-interest.