The video separates estimating a threat from choosing the most familiar way to counter it. Planners cannot safely assume that an opponent's claimed capability is fictional, because being wrong could leave a fleet unable to fight the war it actually faces. A larger gun is one possible answer to a long-range weapon, but missiles or carrier aviation might create a more useful offsetting advantage. The same distinction applies to tanks and submarines: a better example of the same platform may be an excellent counter without being the only counter. The practical choice depends on whether an alternative is reliable and cost-effective for the nation that must field it.
Notable Point · 46:49-49:16
Plan against the threat, not the preferred counter
A claimed long-range gun requires a credible response, but that response might be a better gun, missiles, carrier aircraft or another asymmetric capability.