The counterfactual stops before compounded assumptions turn alternate history into unrestricted fiction. It tests for invariants: if an event still occurs after different decisions, those decisions were not its controlling cause. Attention should then shift to the factor that remains common across the scenarios. This method keeps the Henderson-Fisher case focused on bounded institutional and leadership changes rather than wish fulfilment.
Notable Point · 30:13-31:37
Counterfactuals test which decisions actually caused change
Holding most conditions steady and tracking events that recur under different choices helps separate background forces from decisions with real causal leverage.