If Norway and France held: war length and Soviet power

Could the Second World War have been much shorter if Norway and France had not fallen, and would the Soviet Union still become a military power without the same wartime crucible?

Holding Norway and France could shorten the war by containing Germany, while the Soviet Union would probably still become a military power, though perhaps not be recognised as quickly.

The counterfactual produces a chain of consequences without fixing a certain end date for the war. Without Norwegian and French bases, German submarines would have to pass North Sea or Channel barriers backed by aircraft, surface patrols, and minefields. Italy might hesitate to enter a war Germany did not appear to be winning, while an invasion of the Soviet Union would become an even riskier choice. A contained Germany would also leave more Royal Navy heavy units available for the Indian Ocean or Mediterranean. The Soviet Union would probably still become a military power without the same wartime crucible, although it might not be recognised as one as quickly. The war would likely be shorter, while political decisions prevent a fixed timetable.