Changing German technology would also change the choices made by other countries. British, American, and Japanese programs would respond to the same evidence, making the guided-weapon race interactive. Policymakers must still estimate threats with incomplete information and can choose the wrong aircraft, weapon, or warship. In peacetime analysis that may look like a bad forecast. In wartime procurement, it determines what crews have available in combat and can cost lives. The technical counterfactual therefore carries a broader lesson about uncertainty, adaptation, and the human cost of design decisions.
Notable Point · 58:43-59:54
Why counterfactual procurement errors cost lives
A credible alternate history must let every power react, while recognizing that mistaken weapon and warship choices cost lives.