Notable Point · 30:41-31:29

Treat the plan as an untested counterfactual

The scheme is a reasoned but unmodelled proposal, open to criticism and carrying no guarantee of victory.

Notes

The plan has not been tested by computer simulation or a tabletop exercise. It was worked through mentally, and its assumptions remain open to constructive criticism. A stated limitation is that the proposal draws on greater familiarity with sea command than land command. The question is whether changing the senior commander could make historically available choices cohere into a better campaign. These caveats frame the episode as a testable counterfactual argument instead of a victory narrative built on hindsight.