The proposed counterfactual concentrates Japan's main body and carrier force, combines the surviving Carrier Division Five air groups aboard Zuikaku, and avoids the rearming cycle. It assumes the loss of two American carriers and two Japanese carriers, followed by Japan's capture of Midway. Enterprise and Hornet are the proposed American casualties because the Japanese had located Task Force 16. A strike of roughly 130 aircraft, including Zuikaku's contribution, is judged capable of sinking or disabling both. Piecemeal American attacks would face more fighters and anti-aircraft fire while the Japanese carriers avoided the repeated weapon changes. The effects on later operations and Midway's historical reputation remain open questions.
Notable Point · 2:24:46-2:27:48
Counterfactual: a Japanese victory at Midway
The counterfactual assumes two carrier losses on each side and Japan's capture of Midway, leaving the effects on later operations and historical memory open.