Using counterfactual history to study strategy

This is reimagined or one-change history rather than an attempt to predict an unknowable alternate timeline. Known history tempts students to judge every idea using the outcome they already know. A counterfactual removes that shortcut and forces attention onto the constraints, choices, and risks visible to decision-makers at the time. Participants must compare plausible moves without knowing in advance which plan the historical record will vindicate. The method can teach strategic judgement even when no one can prove the imagined result.