Notable Point · 1:48:57-1:52:47

Could earlier British mobilization have deterred war?

The closing counterfactual tests whether a full British fleet alert and public conference proposal on 24 July could have changed German choices.

Notes

The proposed alternative is a full British fleet alert on 24 July, accompanied by a public invitation to every government to negotiate at a conference. Earlier mobilization probably would not have prevented war because German leaders believed they could still defeat Russia before its rearmament programme was completed in 1917. Britain probably would have remained outside a conflict in which Germany held off France, attacked Russia, and avoided Belgium and the Channel. War over Belgium united a Liberal Party that remained divided over intervention on other grounds. The counterfactual therefore turns on whether a clearer British warning could change German choices despite the perceived urgency of war with Russia.