What destroying the Kido Butai changes

Without the Kido Butai, Japan might still attack the Philippines, but the attritional framework meant to weaken an American advance would be badly compromised. The United States could send its battle fleet west without first passing through the carrier-led sequence of losses on which Japanese planning depended. Surviving American carriers would give that advance overwhelming naval air power, potentially preserving the Philippines and shortening the war. Such a failure could rapidly end Tojo's rule, with Mitsumasa Yonai and other senior figures distancing the emperor from responsibility. Roosevelt would still be unlikely to deliberately engineer this battle because every version of the trap risks American lives.