Notable Point ยท 2:37:31-2:43:24

Confidence and collective restraint in a diplomatic analogy

An analogy links confidence with bargaining room and collective restraint with the shared costs of coercion.

Notes

The interpretation compares relations between states with encounters between individuals who feel secure or vulnerable. Confidence is associated with the ability to make concessions, while insecurity is associated with defending even small advantages. The analogy also allows for a stronger actor trying to coerce a weaker one. Other actors then have reasons to intervene because that behavior disrupts their own activities and economic interests. A playground example illustrates both collective restraint and the dependence of formal authorities on the people who give them power.