Q&A ยท 3:52:45-3:53:19

Concurrent crises do not require a formal alliance

Rival states can exploit an opponent's distraction without coordinating a joint plan, while provable cooperation could provoke a stronger common response.

Question

Do Russia, China, and Iran need to be coordinating in order to exploit simultaneous crises?

Short answer

No; each can exploit the distraction created by the others, and formal coordination could create political risks if it were exposed.

Notes

Opportunism differs from an organized multi-state strategy. A government can observe that another crisis is absorbing American attention and decide independently that it has more room to act. Formal coordination is unnecessary for several pressures to arrive at once. Proven cooperation could also create problems for the participating states if the Americans detected it.