Why combat damage claims should be discounted

Why did commanders continue to believe optimistic claims about heavy-bomber accuracy and damage?

Because combatants naturally overestimate what they have destroyed; planners should treat all service claims as uncertain rather than assume the reports are deliberate lies.

No service's destruction reports should be accepted at face value. Pilots, tank crews, and other combatants work with incomplete observations and can count the same or uncertain loss more than once. Sound operational analysis applies a consistent discount and looks for independent confirmation.