The final invasion screen gives the operation only a 65 percent chance of success despite the forces already committed. A large number of defending coastal submarines stands out as an immediate explanation for the residual risk. Their short range matters less when the objective brings the attacking fleet close to defended waters. The moment reinforces the earlier mine-warfare discussion by showing how local submarines can complicate an amphibious operation even when the attacker possesses a much larger overall fleet.
Chapter · 2:44:58-2:45:34
Coastal submarines as an invasion-risk calculation
The campaign closes by weighing an invasion chance against a defence featuring many coastal submarines.