Perceived conflict aversion in China's strategic calculus

Do China's regional rhetoric and actions resemble an updated East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere?

There is some similarity in regional ambition, but the methods differ and Chinese leaders may expect Western democracies to avoid confrontation.

National leaders prioritize what they see as their country's needs, then assess the likely response to force. In discussions described here, Chinese interlocutors often treated Western democracies as conflict-averse after recent experiences. That perception can lower the expected political cost of coercion even when Western planners believe their deterrent signal is clear. Chinese decision-makers may calculate risk by a different metric, and the passage does not claim that either metric is inherently right.